This factors in the number of conspirators, the length of time, and even the effects of conspirators dying, whether of old age or more nefarious means, for those conspiracies that do not require active maintenance. To do that, I looked at the vital requirement for a viable conspiracy - secrecy.'ĭr Grimes initially created an equation to express the probability of a conspiracy being either deliberately uncovered by a whistle-blower or inadvertently revealed by a bungler. 'It is common to dismiss conspiracy theories and their proponents out of hand but I wanted to take the opposite approach, to see how these conspiracies might be possible. However, not every belief in a conspiracy is necessarily wrong - for example, the Snowden revelations confirmed some theories about the activities of the US National Security Agency. While believing the moon landings were faked may not be harmful, believing misinformation about vaccines can be fatal. He explained: 'A number of conspiracy theories revolve around science. Those messages prompted him to look at whether large-scale collusions were actually tenable. His profile means that he receives many communications from people who believe in science-related conspiracies. The study is published online by journal PLOS ONE.ĭr Grimes, a physicist working in cancer research, is also a science writer and broadcaster. While we can all keep a secret, a study by Dr David Robert Grimes suggests that large groups of people sharing in a conspiracy will very quickly give themselves away.
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